Donald Trump recently proposed buying up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to push mortgage rates down — calling it a step toward “restoring the American Dream.”
Lower rates sound like the answer everyone has been waiting for.
But in Arizona’s real estate market — where we are already seeing homes sit on the market for 80–100+ days — the impact isn’t as simple as it seems.
📉 How Buying Mortgage Bonds Lowers Rates
When the government buys mortgage bonds, it increases demand.
Higher demand pushes interest rates down.
Lower rates mean:
More qualifying power
Lower monthly payments
A fresh surge of buyers entering the market
At first glance, that feels like relief.
🏡 Why Lower Rates Might Backfire — Especially in Arizona
If Arizona buyers remember anything from 2020–2021, it’s this:
Rates fell. Demand exploded. Prices skyrocketed.
The Valley saw:
Record-breaking bidding wars
Homes selling in days or even hours
Prices rising 20–40% in one year and even higher in certain pockets
Lower rates did not make homes cheaper —
they made demand surge so fast that affordability vanished.
Arizona’s current market is especially vulnerable to this pattern.
We are already seeing:
A buyers market emerging in many areas
Homes sitting over 100 days
More price reductions and negotiations
But reopening the demand floodgates could flip us right back into a seller-driven spike.
💸 The Real Affordability Issue Isn’t Just Rates
Affordability trouble right now comes from:
Prices rising far faster than wages
Limited supply of new, affordable homes
Inflation increasing the cost of living
Lower rates do not:
❌ Increase wages
❌ Create new listings
❌ Build more homes
❌ Solve inventory challenges
They simply make it easier for more buyers to compete for the same limited homes.
✔️ The Upside of Trump’s Idea
There are benefits for some Arizona buyers:
First-time buyers could qualify again
Move-up buyers may feel less locked in
Refinancing opportunities would open
But these wins only last if inventory stays healthy.
❌ The Downside
If rates remain too low for too long:
Buyers pile into the market
Prices rise again
Sellers regain leverage
Affordability suffers long-term
It becomes the same boom cycle we just lived through.
🎯 The Arizona Bottom Line
Arizona doesn’t just need cheaper borrowing —
we need more homes people can actually buy.
Real solutions look like:
🏗️ More construction
📑 Faster zoning approvals
📉 Incentives for mid-range homes
💼 Wages rising with housing costs
Rate relief helps temporarily,
but affordability requires structural change.
👋 Final Thought
If you’re buying, selling, or relocating in Arizona, ignore the political headlines and focus on your price point, city, and timeline. The right strategy matters more than what happens in Washington.